The Nordics sit at a crossroads. Geopolitical tension, tariff turbulence, and economic uncertainty have made 2025 a stop-start year for dealmaking across the region. Yet beneath the volatility, something more interesting is happening: momentum is quietly building. At our recent Dealmakers Dialogues Helsinki event, industry leaders Camilla Lehtola, Anette Luomanperä, Marcus Möller, Staffan Jåfs, and Victor Claesson agreed that Nordics M&A is entering a new chapter, defined by cautious optimism, renewed activity, and structural challenges that will shape how deals get done in 2026 and beyond.

A market moving slowly upward

Nordics deal activity slowed in Q3, echoing the broader European pattern: total deals fell 15.1% yoy, but value held steadier, declining just 5.3% yoy as buyers reserved their capital for mid-market deals. This was a bit of a change from Q1, when deal volume fell 29.7% yoy, but value soared 120.5% in the region.

Despite this volatility, dealmakers are optimistic that things are on the upswing. Legal advisors reported more billable hours, banks noted an upswing in mandates, and Datasite saw an all-time-high month for new projects in October for the Nordics region. And while activity slowed through late summer as political, economic, and regulatory uncertainty pushed many buyers and sellers into wait-and-see mode, deal momentum has gradually returned after summer.  As a result, there are high hopes for a busier-than-normal Q4 and a robust pipeline heading into early 2026.

Headwinds persist

Nevertheless, misalignment on valuation remains a huge obstacle to closing deals. Buyers remain disciplined, particularly after the turbulence of the last two years, while many sellers still benchmark against peak-cycle pricing from 2021-2022.

Until those expectations converge, dealmaking will continue to require creativity, from staged exits to structured components and minority investments.

Regulatory approvals, specifically merger control and FDI filings, are also having an impact on M&A. Finland's authorities seem to be increasingly demanding, requiring extended pre-filing discussions and resulting in unpredictable timelines, especially compared to Sweden’s more standardized approach.

While private equity buyers often move more quickly through phase-one merger review, strategic acquirers face tougher scrutiny due to potential overlaps and synergy assumptions. For corporates, these delays can be manageable; in competitive auction processes, they are a significant disadvantage.

Fewer constraints, further expansion

The good news is that financing conditions have improved modestly. While large, syndicated financings still face friction, strong mid-market deals with established lender relationships encounter fewer constraints.

And while geopolitical uncertainty, from tariffs to US policy shifts, continues to weigh on market sentiment, US buyers remain surprisingly active in Finland, reflecting both stable demand for Nordic engineering and technology, and the attractiveness of Northern Europe for expansion.

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