EMEA M&A entered 2026 with a clear bifurcation: fewer deals, but larger ones. Transaction volumes fell yoy, while aggregate value rose sharply, reflecting a market increasingly driven by scale, strategic urgency, and capital concentration. As revealed in our latest Deal Drivers report, Poland and Romania illustrate two contrasting, but related, narratives shaping Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): selective deployment at scale and accelerated restructuring at the domestic level.

Poland: scale, infrastructure, and strategic positioning

Poland’s Q1 performance underscores its emergence as a core European growth and logistics hub. While deal volume declined by 10% to 81 transactions, aggregate value surged to €10.7bn, the highest quarterly level in three years. This divergence reflects a market anchored by large, strategic transactions rather than broad-based activity.

The defining deal was the €9.8bn take-private of InPost by a consortium led by FedEx and Advent International. Beyond its size, the transaction signals deepening investor conviction in last-mile logistics infrastructure that connects Western Europe with Ukraine and the wider CEE region. Poland’s positioning as a distribution gateway, reinforced by rail corridors and diversified energy supply, is increasingly central to that thesis.

Energy security is a second key theme. Domestic consolidation of coal and energy infrastructure, alongside continued investment in logistics and industrial real estate, reflects a broader European trend: prioritizing control over critical assets amid geopolitical volatility.

Near-term pipeline dynamics are also shaped by policy timing. Poland’s EU Recovery Fund program is driving a front-loaded investment cycle, with a rush to contract funding ahead of deadlines expected to compress near-term dealflow and push activity into H2 2026. For dealmakers, this suggests a backlog of projects likely to convert into transactions once public capital deployment accelerates.

Romania: retrenchment, consolidation, and domestic champions

Romania presents a more defensive picture. Macroeconomic pressure, including GDP contraction in late 2025 and persistent inflation, has weighed on activity, with deal volume down 44% yoy to 28 transactions. Yet, as in Poland, value has moved in the opposite direction, rising 242% to €1.5bn.

The explanation lies in a wave of strategic exits by international players. Q1 was characterized by foreign corporates retreating from the market and domestic or regional buyers stepping in. The €823m acquisition of Carrefour Romania by Pavăl Holding, creating a national retail heavyweight, exemplifies this shift. Similarly, financial services consolidation through Raiffeisen’s €591m acquisition of Garanti Bank highlights the reconfiguration of ownership structures.

This pattern points to a broader “localization” of ownership across sectors such as retail and banking, as Western multinationals reassess exposure to smaller, more volatile markets. For advisors, Romania’s opportunity set is therefore less about inbound expansion and more about carve-outs, disposals, and consolidation plays dominated by regional capital.

At the same time, EU Recovery Fund deployment, with €28.5bn at stake, is a critical near-term catalyst. Execution risk remains high, but successful absorption could stabilize the pipeline and support infrastructure-led deal activity in subsequent quarters.

CEE in context: fewer deals, bigger bets

Across CEE, the Poland-Romania split sits within a wider regional pattern. Deal volume declined materially, yet aggregate value rose, driven by large-scale transactions in logistics, financial services, and energy infrastructure. Rising deal multiples further underline strong competition for high-quality assets.

Two structural forces are shaping this environment. First, capital is concentrating in assets tied to resilience: logistics networks, energy infrastructure, and financial systems. Second, geopolitical disruption and supply chain realignment are reinforcing CEE’s strategic relevance, particularly for Western European corporates seeking alternative production and distribution bases.

Outlook: selective, strategic, and state-influenced

Looking ahead, dealmaking in both Poland and Romania is likely to remain selective but purposeful. In Poland, infrastructure, logistics, and energy transition assets should continue to attract large-scale capital. In Romania, consolidation driven by domestic and regional players may accelerate as international capital reallocates.

For M&A professionals, the implication is clear: execution will hinge on identifying assets aligned with structural demand and on navigating a market where scale matters, but timing and positioning are equally critical.

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