The removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from Caracas in early January is transforming the investment outlook for the country.

The Caracas Stock Exchange is showing year-to-date gains of nearly 25% just a week into the New Year and the prices of defaulted Venezuelan government bonds, as well as the debts of state-owned oil company PDVSA, have climbed by close to a third. 

An opportunity for change

Venezuela may be in a state of shock and facing an uncertain future following the US operation, but the immediate reaction of financial markets to Maduro’s removal reflects a hope that Venezuela can turn a corner after years of mismanagement, chaotic government, and international isolation.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves – around a fifth of the global total according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). It should be a wealthy country, but has been plagued by economic crisis, corruption and plummeting living standards.

A new regime, supported by the US government and open to US corporates, has the potential to renew the country’s economy and attract inward investment. Speaking to the FT, Edward Cohen, chief executive of specialist asset manager Winterbrook Capital, said Venezuela was now “out of the deep freeze and back in play”.

The oil industry will be at the center of any economic recovery. Even though Venezuela has abundant reserves, oil production under the Maduro regime has collapsed by a third due to a combination of expropriation, weakening operational and governance procedures and oil sanctions. Investment from US oil majors, and other multinational energy companies, could see significant improvements in production.

What does this mean for M&A?

What this means for M&A in Venezuela is still unclear. Years of economic stasis have had a chilling effect on any kind of deal activity in the country. According to law firm White & Case and Mergermarket, there have only been 14 M&A deals in Venezuela between 2020 and the year to the end of Q3 2025. And the latest heat chart in Deal Drivers: Americas 2026 Outlook indicates that the number of potential deal opportunities in the Latin America and Caribbean region (excluding Brazil) were extremely low heading into 2026.

Political stability, large-scale oil industry investment and supportive policy could go a long way towards reversing paltry M&A volumes, but there is also still no clarity on what happens now that Maduro has been removed. Maduro ally Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as acting President, but the pathway to a smooth transition of power is still unclear.

Other pieces of the puzzle that have to fall into place to re-energize M&A are also far from guaranteed – most significantly investment from international oil companies.

Just under two decades ago Venezuela, then led by Maduro predecessor Hugo Chávez, nationalized Western energy company assets. These companies have lodged claims with international tribunals worth more than US$60 billion against Venezuela and PDVSA. Venezuela has generally ignored any international arbitration awards made against it, forcing companies to target Venezuelan assets held abroad in order to pursue enforcement. For many oil companies, the memories of past expropriation are still raw, and Venezuela remains a country to be approached with extreme caution when doing business.

The outlook for investment in Venezuela may be significantly more positive following recent events, but investing and backing M&A in the country at this point is still only an undertaking for dealmakers with the strongest of stomachs.