The question of what truly is at the center of the universe is ongoing - but when it comes to M&A in the Americas, the answer looks quite clear.

In Deal Drivers: Americas FY 2025, we see deals orbiting the gravity of one thing in particular: AI. And this is what has distorted the market into its current extreme shape.

Supermassive values vs volume black holes

It's been said that market confidence is back, but only in a top-heavy sense. Total deal value hit a four-year high of US$3.1tn in 2025, even as volumes fell by a further 2%. M&A is still clustering around big strategic plays, and more than a third of that value (US$1.16tn) is pouring into the TMT sector. In these tech megadeals, the overriding force is the race for AI.

The ripple effect is twofold. The upside is that other sectors that relate to tech infrastructure (e.g. EMU, Industrials) are pulled along in TMT's wake. The downside: in the mid-market, M&A continues to stagnate as dealmakers wait for the landscape to stabilize.

AI is the center of gravity

US policies encouraging AI ventures seem almost gratuitous. Huge money is pouring into data centers (Microsoft, Blackrock, and others acquiring Aligned Data Centers for US$40bn), cybersecurity (Alphabet's US$32bn takeover of Wiz), and foundational LLMs (the US$40bn consortium investment in OpenAI, for just over a 13% stake). But this direct investment is just the hub of a wider galaxy of dealmaking.

Orbiting closest is the EMU sector. AI can expand only as fast as its infrastructure, hence the investment surge in electricity generation and grid-critical assets. The burgeoning demand for resources also brings mining into the picture.

In the next sphere we have Industrials & Chemicals, hammering out deals to support the necessary electrification and infrastructure upgrades. This in turn is making industrial assets more attractive as long-term strategic holds.

And all this is just to keep AI functioning. When we pull in the sectors it is transforming, almost no industry is untouched. The massive bids for Warner Bros by Netflix and Paramount reflect a media consolidation driven by AI-enhanced content distribution. Consumer & Business Services are chasing AI-enabled personalization and operational efficiencies. And in PBM, AI is accelerating the search for new drugs and the modeling of clinical trials, with big pharma chasing multi-billion-dollar deals.

Even private equity, despite fewer deals, is targeting AI-adjacent assets. Data infrastructure, gaming IP, cybersecurity, and industrial automation have all helped to push total PE buyout value up 37% to US$775bn.

For now, at least, AI could well be said to be the center of the M&A universe.

Widening orbits - activity across the regions

A sign of AI's disrupting force is the migration of tech investment beyond its traditional home. Though the Western US remains a hotbed of TMT dealmaking, the epicenter has shifted to the even busier Northeast (which also leads for PMB stories, as well as overall activity). The South is also not far behind on tech deals, and even the Midwest has data centers sprouting among the grain silos. Beyond the US, resource-rich Canada is capitalizing on AI's insatiable appetite for power. And although harsh credit conditions are depressing Latin America, mining and infrastructure are generating pockets of opportunity even there.

We see a market re-morphing in terms of both scale and distribution: a smaller number of much higher-value deals, spread across a striking range of regions and sectors. And much of it seems due to the gravitational influence of one game-changing technology.

Does AI explain the market mood?

For four years now, deal numbers have been declining even as values have climbed. Explanations have ranged from geopolitical turmoil to high interest rates. But maybe the biggest reason was hiding in plain sight. The paradigm shift of AI has roused the biggest beasts in the market, and, while they jostle for territory, smaller players may be waiting for the dust to settle before formulating their own strategies in the changed landscape.